UFC 129 "St. Pierre vs. Shields" (4/30/11)

UFC 129 - St. Pierre vs. Shields
Ultimate Fighting Championship
April 30, 2011
Rogers Centre
Toronto, Ontario, Canada

UFC 129 Trailer

Untitled from Mike Russell on Vimeo.
UFC 129 Press Conference

UFC 129 Countdown Pt. 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

UFC Prime Time Episode 1

Episode 2

???????
UFC 129 Weigh-Ins

King JB preview

Dibiase preview

Cody's preview

Main Card
Welterweight Championship Fight: #1 Georges St-Pierre (21-2/15-2) vs. #3 Jake Shields (26-4-1/1-0)

Fight Trailer

George St. Pierre Pre-Fight Interview

Jake Shields Pre-Fight Interview

MY PICK – Jake Shields via submission

SHERDOG's PICK – George St. Pierre via decision

VEGAS's PICK – George St. Pierre -380 (+330)

DIBIASE's PICK - George St. Pierre

CODY's PICK - Jake Shields

Pre-Fight Notes: GSP has won eight huge fights in a row and has basically dominated the UFC Welterweight division for seven years. GSP has only lost twice in his entire career with one being the TKO loss to Matt Serra and another being a submission loss to Matt Hughes. There is no question that he has just simply dominated since basically the beginning of his career. The one knock on GSP is his safe way of fighting these days. His last three fights and four of his last five have went to the judges. Granted, GSP is 8-0 when the fight meets the judges. Fighting in front of his home crowd should be huge for GSP, but the truth is that this may be his toughest defense to date. He is fighting another man that sees the judges quite alot, infact, he has seen them in more than half of his 31 fights (16). He is 13-3 in those fights that have seen the judges. He also has seen them three fights in a row. Needless to say, I think this fight will hit the judges again and that is why I think that GSP will get lucky and squeeze this one out. Basically GSP's only other chance at winning this fight is standing and the only chance for Shields is via submission off of his back. I just think that GSP will lay and pray his way to another victory. I do want to add that Jake Shields has won 15 straight fights and hasn't lost a fight in seven years. He has only been finished once and that was eleven years ago in his third fight of his pro career. This fight just seems DESTINED for the judges. For the record, I hope that Jake Shields wins this fight, but I just don't see how he can possibly out point GSP in the UFC in a title fight.

EDITOR's NOTE: As of 4/28/11, I have officially changed my pick to Jake Shields. After watching quite a bit on Mr. Shields, I have realized that he has a very underrated wrestling game and definitely has the ability to take GSP down. I am officially changing my pick to JAKE SHIELDS via submission to become the NEW Welterweight Champion!

Featherweight Championship Fight: #1 José Aldo (18-1/8-0) vs. Mark Hominick (20-8/6-2)

Trailer for Fight

Jose Aldo Pre-Fight Interview

Mark Hominick Pre-Fight Interview

MY PICK - Jose Aldo via TKO

SHERDOG's PICK – Jose Aldo via TKO

VEGAS's PICK – Jose Aldo -417 (+358)

DIBIASE's PICK - Jose Aldo

CODY's PICK - Jose Aldo

Pre-Fight Notes: The only thing really going for Hominick here is that he is fighting at home in Canada. Jose Aldo has been on a war path and the only time I actually thought that he was going to lose a fight, was when he met Urijah Faber, which he ended up dominating. Aldo has just quickly moved up the pound for pound ranks over the past two years like crazy. He has finished 14 of his 18 wins and only lost once, via submission. He has won an amazing eleven fights in a row, and finished seven of his last eight fights. Right now, he just basically seems unstoppable, especially in the striking department. He will be making his UFC debut up against Mark Hominick, who will be at home after working his ass off to get to the UFC as well. He fought earlier in the year and looked pretty good against George Roop. He has won five in a row with four of them being finishes. Hominick is very well rounded, but his problem is that he always chokes against the big names so to speak. He rarely is defeated standing, which is exactly why I think this fight will be a stand up masterpeace. The truth is that Aldo is just WAY TOO MUCH for Hominick however and will more than likely get the T/KO win.

Light Heavyweight Fight: Vladimir Matyushenko (25-5/6-3) vs. Jason Brilz (18-3-1/3-2)

Vladimir Matyushenko Pre-Fight Interview

Jason Brilz Pre-Fight Interview

MY PICK – Vladimir Matsyushenko via decision

SHERDOG's PICK – Jason Brilz via decision

VEGAS's PICK – Vladimir Matsyushenko -122 (+108)

DIBIASE's PICK - Jason Brilz

CODY's PICK - Jason Brilz

Pre-Fight Notes: This should be a great POWERFUL fight here between two very solid light heavyweights. I think that this fight right here is the one that could steal the show much like Brilz fight with Little Nog. We haven't seen Brilz since that fight in which many people believe that he was screwed over. Despite losing two of three, both losses were split decisions in fights in which Brilz could have probably been considered the winner. That makes his only loss via finish back in 2001 to an armbar. Thats ten years without a serious loss for Mr. Brilz. His last four fights have went to the judges however, so its likely that this fight could do the same. Vlady's wrestling ability assures this to be a ground war, that could possibly end up boring. I think this fight is just simply destined for the judges. Vladimir's experience and wrestling could end up taking this for him. I anticipate another split decision in which people will be complaining about until both of these warrior's next fight.

Light Heavyweight Fight: #7 Randy Couture (19-10/16-7) vs. #5 Lyoto Machida (16-2/8-2)

Trailer for Fight

Randy Couture Pre-Fight Interview

Lyota Machida HIGHLIGHT package

MY PICK – Lyota Machida via TKO

SHERDOG's PICK – Lyota Machida via decision

VEGAS's PICK – Lyota Machida -321 (+279)

DIBIASE's PICK - Lyota Machida

CODY's PICK - Randy Couture

Pre-Fight Notes: This is the most fun fight on the entire card in my book. Randy Couture has went on record to say that this fight, his 30^th, will be his last one and he will retire following the fight to concentrate on his movie career. The issue I have with that is that if he wins, he more than likely will get a HUGE fight that he will NOT turn down. However, he will not win this fight. Couture is great and has had a wonderful career. However, Lyota Machida is far too quick for Randy Couture and most people already know that. Randy Couture dominates his fights using his dirty boxing and the truth is that he will not be able to hold Machida like that. He will not even be able to catch Machida in my book. I think Machida is going to get back on the right track here in a major way by knocking OUT the legend and hall of famer pretty quickly into the fight. What is funny is that I do not think Couture wants to go out with a loss, so I do NOT think that he will be retiring either way here. Either way, this should be a pretty fun fight. I do have to admit that this fight does show the possibilities of being a dud on one angle...Machida goes to a lot of decisions...Is it possible that he gets caught in a clinch against the cage for three rounds? Jesus, I hope not.

Lightweight Fight: Mark Bocek (9-3/5-3) vs. Ben Henderson (12-2/5-1)

Mark Bocek Pre-Fight Interview

Ben Henderson HIGHLIGHT Package

MY PICK – Ben Henderson via decision

SHERDOG's PICK – Ben Henderson via submission

VEGAS's PICK – Ben Henderson -117 (+103)

DIBIASE's PICK - Ben Henderson

CODY's PICK - Ben Henderson

Pre-Fight Notes: Ben Henderson is simply one of my favorite lightweights in the world. I think that he has the ability to beat anyone in the division. Overall, I guess the question is how he will do in his UFC debut. Bocek has won four of his last five fights. Bocek's submission game is just as sick as it gets and the truth is that he can pull off the submission upset at any time during the fight. Coming off of his loss to Anthony Pettis, I just think that Ben is going to be hype about getting back on the winning track here in his biggest fight of his career. Henderson's submission game is also pretty amazing, so this fight can go one of a few different ways. I think this fight will go to the ground where Ben Henderson's length will prevent him from being submitted. However, unless Henderson can pull of a TKO, I just don't see the submission coming here. I think this one will hit the judges where Henderson will pull off the victory.

Preliminary Card (Spike TV)
Welterweight Fight: Nate Diaz (13-6/8-4) vs. Rory MacDonald (10-1/1-1)

Nate Diaz Pre-Fight Interview

Rory MacDonald Interview

MY PICK - Nate Diaz via submission

SHERDOG's PICK – Rory MacDonald via decision

VEGAS's PICK – Rory MacDonald -117 (+103)

DIBIASE's PICK – Nate Diaz

CODY's PICK – Rory MacDonald

Pre-Fight Notes: This is gonna be a hell of a fight and probably one of the hardest one's to pick. Nate Diaz is great at what he does, but after Rory MacDonald's battle with Carlos Condit, its hard to pick against him. Nate is coming off a loss , but he hasn't been finished since 2006 when he was submitted by Hermes Franca in the WEC. In fact, thats the only time that he has been finished in his entire career. He has been to only 6 decisions in his 19 fights, but he is 1-5 in those fights. Obviously the key for Nate Diaz is to finish this fight, which typically for him means a submission. He has nine submission wins in his thirteen victories. Rory MacDonald as I mentioned is coming off one of the greatest wars ever in the Octagon with Carlos Condit. That was the only loss of his career and the truth is that he would have won the fight had it went to the judges. With that being said, MacDonald is looking pretty solid at this point in his career. He has never been to the judges, which in this case could be his downfall. What I honestly see going down is much of the same of the Condit fight. I think that MacDonald will dominate the fight and if it goes to a decision, he will more than likely take it since Nate never gets any love from the judges. However, I think he is gonna try to submit Nate and that is going to be his downfall. I expect this fight to hit the mat and Nate to pull of the submission finish in what can easily be the FIGHT OF THE NIGHT.

Welterweight Fight: Sean Pierson (11-4/1-0) vs. Jake Ellenberger (24-5/3-1)

Sean Pierson Interview

Jake Ellenberger Pre-Fight Interview

MY PICK - Jake Ellenberger via TKO

SHERDOG's PICK – Jake Ellenberger via KO

VEGAS's PICK – Jake Ellenberger -186 (+169)

DIBIASE's PICK – Jake Ellenberger

CODY's PICK – Jake Ellenberger

Pre-Fight Notes: First off, I want to wish Brian Foster the absolute best in his recovery. He was originally supposed to fight Pierson here, but ended up with a pretty serious brain hemorage issue. I know he was seriously crushed to not be here at this card, but he will live to fight another day. We all hope you get well Brian if you are reading this. Now, onto this fight, which should be a good one. Sean Pierson was originally planning for Foster and to be honest, I had him picked to win that fight. However, Jake Ellenberger is an entirely different beast. Ellenberger may not have had alot of time to prepare for this fight, but his ability alone could be enough. However, I admit that taking the fight on short notice DOES leave open the possibility for an upset here. Pierson is a very well rounded fighter that has won six fights in a row including his debut in the UFC against Matthew Riddle. He finished five of those six wins, so he definitely knows how to finish. In fact, he has only seen the judges twice in fifteen fights, splitting them. Both men here know how to wrestle, but Pierson's is more of the Greco Roman style. Ellenberger has won three of his four fights in the UFC and is coming off of a win at UFC 126 in February. He has won three fights in a row and seems to be really hot right now. His only loss was a SPLIT DECISION to Carlos Condit in the UFC. He has been to a decision eight times in his 29 fights and that is where he seems to lose. Four of his five losses came thanks to the judges. I think that Ellenberger knows that he needs to finish this fight, because he got lucky to get his split decision at UFC 126 over Carlos Eduardo Rocha. I highly doubt that he is gonna wanna take that risk again. I think that Jake is gonna find a way to get him down to the mat for the TKO victory.

Preliminary Card (Facebook)
Welterweight Fight: Claude Patrick (13-1/2-0) vs. Daniel Roberts (12-1/3-1)

Daniel Roberts Interview

Claude Patrick Interview

MY PICK - Daniel Roberts via decision

SHERDOG's PICK – Daniel Roberts via decision or TKO

VEGAS's PICK – Claude Patrick -172 (+158)

DIBIASE's PICK – NONE

CODY's PICK – Daniel Roberts

Pre-Fight Notes: This fight can very easily become the fight of the night. I do not think it will get the award based on the Diaz and MacDonald fight that I expect to be a blood bath. However, this fight should easily be one of the top five fights on the card. Someone is gonna recieve one hell of a solid fight after this fight. Hell, maybe even both of them will recieve big named fights after this one if they both put up solid fight of the night performances here regardless of who wins or loses. Claude Patrick has an amazing submission game and is undefeated in the UFC at 2-0. His only loss was a decision loss to Drew McFedries in his career. He has finished his opposition in 12 of the 13 wins, with nine of them being submissions. Did I mention that he has won TWELVE FIGHTS in a row? Daniel Roberts also has an amazing submission game and he also has only lost once, which was a KO loss to John Howard. He also has nine submissions in his career, but is 3-0 with the judges. Honestly, I think this is gonna be a hard back and forth fight all the way to the end. I think we will see the judges in this fight and Daniel Roberts will pull out the small upset for his fourth win in a row. Don't get me wrong, anyone can get a submission at any time in this fight, but something tells me that each other's jiu-jitsu abilities will cancel each other out.

Bantamweight Fight: Ivan Menjivar (21-8/0-2) vs. Charlie Valencia (12-6/5-4)

Ivan Menjivar Pre-Fight Interview

MY PICK – Charlie Valencia via decision

SHERDOG's PICK – Charlie Valencia via decision

VEGAS's PICK – Ivan Menjivar -152 (+138)

DIBIASE's PICK – NONE

CODY's PICK – Charlie Valencia

Pre-Fight Notes: I believe that this fight is another PINK SLIP FIGHT...I believe that the loser of this fight will be out of the UFC basically before they could ever really even get started. Menjivar is 0-2 and Valencia is 5-4 under the Zuffa banner. Menjivar lost to Matt Serra way back at UFC 48, which should tell you how long Ivan has actually been around. He also lost inside the WEC cage to Brad Pickett at their final event. He has actually lost three of his last four fights and just basically looks horrible right now. I admit that his losses are coming by decision, but I dont think it really matters. Actually, he has only been finished twice in his career, so finishing him is definitely a hard thing to do. Valencia on the other hand has won three of his last four. However, he just has a habit of losing to decent fighters. His last fight was in September, which was a loss to Miguel Torres by submission. Valencia goes to the judges all the time. This is actually why I think he will win this fight. He has luck with the judges, which recently Ivan hasnt. I think Valencia will squeek out a decision win here and end Menjivar's Zuffa/UFC career. I am not very interested in this fight to be honest.

Middleweight Fight: Jason MacDonald (24-14/5-6) vs. Ryan Jensen (15-7/2-5)

Jason MacDonald Interview

Ryan Jensen Interview

MY PICK – Jason MacDonald via submission

SHERDOG's PICK – Ryan Jensen via decision

VEGAS's PICK – Ryan Jensen -147 (+133)

DIBIASE's PICK – NONE

CODY's PICK – Jason MacDonald

Pre-Fight Notes: Jason MacDonald's submission game is just top notch and very underrated. However, with a 5-6 record inside the UFC, this is do or die for him. The same goes for Ryan Jensen whom is a horrible 2-5 inside the Octagon. To be honest, I don't really see how either of these fighters are still employed with the company, but they are. MacDonald has won three of his last four, but is coming off a loss to John Salter almost a year ago where he suffered a leg injury. Jensen also has a pretty good submission game as well. He has lost two of his last three and I am 100% convinced that the loser of this fight will be fired from the UFC. I think it will be Ryan Jensen as he will get caught in a MacDonald submission. Jason is gonna bring this one in based on home field advantage in my book. I am not to excited about this fight either.

Lightweight Fight: John Makdessi (8-0/1-0) vs. Kyle Watson (13-6-1/1-0)

John Makdessi Pre-Fight Interview

Kyle Watson Pre-Fight Interview

MY PICK – John Makdessi via TKO

SHERDOG's PICK – Kyle Watson via decision or submission

VEGAS's PICK – John Makdessi -172 (+158)

DIBIASE's PICK – NONE

CODY's PICK – John Makdessi

Pre-Fight Notes: This fight is one of them fights that you just never really know about. Both men are 1-0 I believe under the Zuffa banner, and looking to pick up another win here. Makdessi obviously has never been defeated and has an excellent kickboxing game. He has finished six of these eight wins by T/KO. So, he obviously has hands of stone and can knock a man out. All of his wins are by TKO however, so he is yet to get that clean KNOCK OUT so far. Watson has a great submission game and has won five fights in a row. It has been proven that he can be knocked out or hit with a TKO though in his past. Personally, I think it is possible for Watson to pull out a submission here, but unlikely. I think that Makdessi will stay undefeated and get the TKO victory before Watson gets the chance to tap him. I honestly am not sure if this will be a very good fight or not. Obviously, this is another Canada vs. The USA type of fight. I think Canada is gonna get this one...

Featherweight Fight: Yves Jabouin (15-6/1-2) vs. Pablo Garza (10-1/1-1)

Yves Jabouin Pre-Fight Interview

Pablo Garza Pre-Fight Interview

MY PICK - Yves Jabouin via KO

SHERDOG's PICK – Yves Jabouin via KO

VEGAS's PICK – Yves Jabouin -172 (+158)

DIBIASE's PICK – NONE

CODY's PICK – Pablo Garza

Pre-Fight Notes: Not a bad fight in the Featherweight Division as both of these men are probably trying to not be cut here from the UFC. Yves Jabouin is an excellent striker, but with a WEC record of 1-2, chances are that a loss here would lead to his dismissal in his UFC debut. The truth about Yves is that he just isn't all that impressive right now. He never really has beaten anyone that has done much in the sport. I have to admit that this would be a career saving win for him if he can do it. The good thing for him is that his knockout power means he could pull it out at any time. Everyone seems to have him favored in this fight against Garza, who has only lost one time in his career. Garza has a pretty solid submission game and can tap out Yves at any time during this fight. He has never been knocked out obviously as his only loss was by submission. I think that his first time being knocked out will happen right here tonight. I gotta go with Yves Jabouin by knockout here. He's just too solid of a striker and I think he is too quick to get caught in Garza's grappling based offense.

PRE-EVENT COMMENTS: We basically have a wonderful USA vs. CANADA theme for the first time I believe since UFC 58 in which Rich Franklin fought David Louiseau and GSP fought BJ Penn the first time. If my calculations are the correct, the winner of the war this time should be the United States again 6 fights to 3. At UFC 58, The UFC won 5-3 in the head to head battles. That event was in Las Vegas however with a crowd of less than 10,000 (9,569). The buy rate for that one was only 300,000. Something tells me that this event and this show blow ALL numbers away previously. Its already gonna have an attendance of over 55,000 people, which is a UFC record by far. This literally will be the highest grossing UFC event (atleast live) in the companies history. That alone should tell you how great this card is probably gonna be. The problem is that I honestly do not think the undercard is as amazing as everyone thinks. Every single time you are stuck in another country, you have to do local “fillers” that would never be on the show otherwise. How do you think my boy Sean McCorkle got into the UFC? They happened to be doing UFC 119 here in Indianapolis and walah, there you have it. If we didn't have to have SO MANY Canadians, the show would have been better. It is nothing against Canada, but when you make a show basically USA vs. CANADA, you are leaving a lot of solid people out of the mix. Especially Brazillians and the Japanese. Oh well though, I still think this will be a pretty solid card. I also want to note here that the second set of win-loss records next to these fighter's names is their ZUFFA records for either the UFC, the WEC, or the UFC/WEC mixed. I think that the fight of the night is going to be Nate Diaz and Rory MacDonald. I think that the submission of the night is going to Jake Shields. I think that the KO of the night will be awarded to Lyota Machida in his fight with Randy Couture. Who will be jobless after UFC 129? I am thinking along the lines of Randy Couture due to retirement after suffering the worst KO of his career. I am thinking of Pablo Garza and Ivan Mejivar. I also think that the loser of Jason MacDonald and Ryan Jensen will be shown the door.

I think this event as a whole will go down in history obviously due to the attendence records. I think that George St. Pierre's loss here will be epic considering the fact that it seems that EVERYONE thinks he will run right through Jake Shields. I heard a poll today on ESPN that said only 17% of the people think that Shields can pull it off. That is a crazy number considering the fact that Shields hasn't lost in seven years. I think Jose Aldo will have the biggest night of anyone however. If GSP loses and Aldo dominates, I think it is safe to say that Aldo will move into the #2 spot on most people's pound for pound list. Overall, this should be a HUGE event. I am disappointed with some of the undercard as well as the horrible opposition for Ben Henderson in his first UFC fight. However, the THREE main events basically are worth the price of admission alone.